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IPアドレスとブラウザの特徴から、日本でご利用されていると判断をし、「セラースプライト-日本語版」をご利用ください。
Best for: new Amazon FBA sellers launching a first private label product, plus global sellers.
This chapter is published by the SellerSprite Academy team. Our workflows are informed by aggregated marketplace signals (including BSR based sales estimation and category benchmarks) and the practical patterns we see from a large seller community. SellerSprite also maintains a widely used browser extension (150,000+ users), which helps us validate what sellers struggle with most in real launches.
Note: any sales or inventory numbers below are model estimates based on tools and historical signals. Always adapt to your product, lead time, seasonality, and personal risk tolerance.
Use SellerSprite Sales Estimator plus a Profitability Calculator check to choose a safer first order size and avoid early stockouts.
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Question: How do I reduce supplier risk before paying for bulk production?Answer: Treat samples as a staged process: initial sample to vet the supplier, pre production sample to approve final details, and production sample to confirm consistency before shipment.
Step 1: Initial sample
Verify base quality, materials, and supplier responsiveness.
Step 2: Pre-production sample
Approve logo, packaging, labels, inserts, and final specs.
Step 3: Production sample
Pull from bulk run, confirm it matches your approved sample.
Pro tip: request at least 3 final samples: one to keep as reference, one for inspection, one for photography.
Share your negotiation situation, get feedback, and learn from other sellers in the SellerSprite Discord and Facebook Group.
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Question: How many units should I order for my first shipment without guessing?Answer: Estimate your expected daily sales using competitor benchmarks, then order enough for a 60 day window plus a small buffer, while checking MOQ and cash flow.
First order units = (Expected daily sales × Coverage days) + Buffer
Coverage days is commonly 60 days for a first launch because it covers early momentum plus reorder lead time. Buffer is typically 10% if budget allows.
Example (Amazon.com)
If competitor benchmarks suggest you can sell 6 units per day, then a 60 day plan is 6 × 60 = 360 units. Add a 10% buffer: 360 × 10% = 36. Your first order target becomes 396 units (round to 400).
This is a model estimate based on tool signals and historical patterns. Adjust for seasonality, price changes, and your risk tolerance.
Conservative
Order 30 to 45 days. Lower cash risk, higher stockout risk if launch exceeds expectations.
Standard
Order about 60 days. Balanced cash use and momentum protection for most beginners.
Aggressive
Order 75 to 90 days. Protects ranking, but increases storage and slow mover risk.
1) Pick a core keyword
Search in a private window to reduce personalization.
2) Benchmark competitors
Use sales estimates, price, rating, and reviews to bracket your launch.
3) Choose expected daily sales
Pick a realistic point between a stronger and weaker competitor.
4) Apply the 60 day formula
Add buffer, then validate against MOQ and cash flow.
Reminder: Sales Estimator numbers are model based estimates using marketplace signals. Always cross check with your own constraints.
If your first order target is below MOQ, your next move is negotiation. Use this guide: Supplier negotiation and MOQ tactics.
Question: How do I know when to reorder before I stock out?Answer: Track total available units across Amazon, in transit, and on order, then use a reorder point formula based on daily sales and lead time plus a safety buffer.
Days of cover
Days of cover = Total available units ÷ Average daily sales
Total available units include Amazon fulfillable, plus in transit, plus warehouse units you can replenish.
Reorder point
Reorder point = Daily sales × (Lead time + Check in days + Safety days)
Safety days reflect your risk tolerance and route reliability.
Example (reorder point)
Average daily sales = 6. Lead time = 25 days. Amazon check in = 7 days. Safety buffer = 10 days.Reorder point = 6 × (25 + 7 + 10) = 6 × 42 = 252 units.When your total available units drop to about 252, it is time to reorder.
This is a model estimate. If you have higher risk tolerance, you can reduce safety days. If you sell seasonal products or ship by ocean, increase buffer.
Conservative inventory
Higher safety days, reorder earlier. Lower stockout risk, more cash tied up.
Standard inventory
Balanced safety days. Good for most beginners shipping regularly.
Aggressive inventory
Lower safety days, reorder later. Frees cash, higher stockout risk if demand spikes.
Mobile note: the table scrolls horizontally inside this box to avoid page level horizontal scrolling.
📦Inventory tracking habit
⚠️Stockout prevention rules
🌍Global seller note
Examples here assume Amazon.com, but the method works across marketplaces. Adjust for local lead times, inbound rules, and fee structures. This is especially useful for global sellers.
Case A: The sample mistake that was caught early
A new seller ordered only one sample. It looked perfect, so they paid for 800 units. The bulk run arrived with inconsistent stitching and a different material feel, causing returns in the first month. On their next product, they requested an initial sample, then a pre production sample with packaging, and finally a production sample pulled from the line. The second launch avoided the quality surprise and reduced early returns.
Lesson: sample stages are cheaper than inventory mistakes.
Case B: First order and inventory saved a ranking drop
A seller planned a 30 day first order because they wanted to limit cash risk. Sales outperformed after week 2, and they stocked out while the reorder was still in production. Ranking softened and ads became less efficient. The next time, they used a 60 day plan with a 10% buffer and set a reorder point using lead time plus receiving days. They reordered earlier, kept listings in stock, and maintained steady momentum.
Lesson: losing stock often costs more than holding a small cushion.
Continue deeper: Inventory monitoring guide and How to become a top Amazon seller (profit and inventory).
Question: Can I get a simple sheet to apply the formulas without building one from scratch?Answer: Yes. We can provide a lightweight Inventory and First Order Planner template (Google Sheets compatible) that matches this chapter.
If you prefer, you can copy the table fields in this article into a new Google Sheet and use the formulas above.
Ready for the next step? Open the SellerSprite Academy course directory to continue building your Amazon FBA skills chapter by chapter.
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For a new product, start with at least one initial sample from 2 to 3 suppliers if you are still choosing a factory. Once you select a supplier, consider 2 to 3 units to test consistency, then request a pre production sample before bulk.
Many beginners start with a 60 day plan: expected daily sales × 60 + buffer. If you are conservative, use 30 to 45 days. If you have strong budget and stable supply, 75 to 90 days can protect momentum.
Track your days of cover weekly and reorder using a reorder point formula: daily sales × (lead time + check in days + safety days). Increase safety days during peak seasons or when Amazon receiving is slower.
Sales Estimator outputs are model estimates based on marketplace signals and historical patterns. They are useful for planning ranges, but you should still apply conservative, standard, or aggressive buffers based on your risk tolerance and supply chain reliability.
The examples use Amazon.com, but the method works for other marketplaces. Update fee assumptions, inbound timelines, and language specific demand patterns for EU and JP, then keep the same reorder math and tracking habit.
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